I would normally choose a celebrity with geographical ties to the opposition, but I just couldn’t find anyone quotable from Derby. Whilst Benjamin Franklin may have been born in Boston, MA, his words help set the scene in the recent developments to Hull City’s season. Death and taxes….and City getting a player injured every week and losing to lower-placed opposition. Those are the 4 certainties of the world, especially when following a period of good results away from home against the top sides.

In truth it’s probably been coming. Whether you view how a match went by actually watching the game, or reading the key stats afterwards (or both), the recent good run was tinged with more than a little fortune. City were keeping clean sheets whilst giving up good chances, something which always catches you up in the end. In the previous game, it was quite evident that the back 4 + keeper hadn’t played many minutes together this season. Further up the pitch, the midfield doesn’t seem quite right, and McBurnie and Gelhardt aren’t getting the chances they did in the 1st half of the season, albeit the latter poked home and equaliser v QPR.

On to a crucial match on Tuesday evening then and it’s anybody’s guess what will happen. We’re playing at home, but we’ve been doing well in the big games. Our record against Derby isn’t particularly promising however, with 5 defeats and a draw in the last 6 meetings. The last 2 visits to Hull have yielded consecutive 1-0 wins for the Rams. Speaking of runs, did you know that Derby are unbeaten in their last 11 midweek games? With seven wins and four draws in that time, they’ve also managed to restrict the opposition to just 5 goals in those matches. Currently 8th and 3 points behind Wrexham who occupy the final play-off spot, John Eustace’s Derby will be rightfully happy with their campaign so far, however, will also be frustrated at losing in their previous game against a Watford side that were on a 7-game winless run. In fact, that was Derby’s second defeat in three games in February, also losing at home against Ipswich at the start of the month. That will give Sergej’s boys a bit of confidence and belief; knowing that the opposition seem to be struggling to pick up points against their promotion rivals.

At the time of writing, news of Yu Hirakawa’s injury update is still pending. Regardless of the severity, the Japanese winger is likely to join a list of growing absentees which could well prompt a change of system. City looked more comfortable earlier in the season playing a 3-man midfield, and the recent return of Joe Gelhardt as a number 10 seems to have upset that balance. With Yu out, it could well be that Joffy is pushed out wide, John Lundstram returns as a midfield anchor, and the side starts to look a bit more balanced again.

As for Derby, Johnston and Langas will miss out with hamstring injuries, but with a front line that could feature Morris, Brereton Diaz, Szmodics and Brewster, there’s an awful lot of firepower at this level which will test an already shaky looking Tigers backline. With that in mind, I’m going to be optimistic and predict a high-scoring draw, although in reality, I’m afraid it might be a struggle.

Prediction: Hull City 2 – 2 Derby County

Hull City possible starting lineup:
Pandur; Giles, Hughes, Egan, Coyle; Lundstram, Slater, Amir; Gelhardt, Millar, McBurnie